Statistics challenge Doctor's Everest warning

Statistics challenge Doctor's Everest warning

Posted: Aug 26, 2006 03:49 am EDT

A number of large media including Reuters reported today that "the death rate on Everest remains alarmingly high, with about one death for every 10 successful ascents". Media cite an article in the Aug. 26 issue of the British Medical Journal by British Doctor Andrew Sutherland, who states that 15 people died on Everest only this year.

In fact, in the last six years the Everest summit/fatality rate is less than 2% - or 1 death in 50 successful ascents. A climber's relative chance of dying on Everest is less than a third today compared to the nineties and only a fraction of the risk before 1990.

In 2006, there were 11 deaths on around 450 summits - a 2006 summit/fatality rate of 2.4% and an overall (1922-2006) summit/fatality rate of 6.74%.

Here goes a breakdown:
(Years/Summits/Fatalities)

1922-1989; 285/106 (37.19%)
1990-1999; 882/59 (6.69%)
2000-2005; 1393/27 (1.94%)

1922-2006; 3010/203 (6.74%)

Since 1990 there has been an explosion of summiteers and fatality statistics have changed. Up to 1990, the Everest fatality rate is a whopping 37%, with 106 deaths and only 285 summits. Yet from 1990 until 2006, the rate has dropped to 3.8%; thus, the rate decreased to about ten times less than the pre-1990 fatality rate. In the new Millenium, the rate has dropped to below 2%.

Everest only tenth deadliest

The British Doctor states that 15 climbers perished on Everest this spring. It's unclear what facts he bases his report on, as only 11 have been officially confirmed (check below).

Sutherland, who had never been above 8000 meters before his Everest summit this year, elaborates on the cause of the deaths on Everest, offering his opinion that although many of the dead were veteran climbers with experience on peaks above 8,000 meters, "things start getting significantly harder over 8,300 meters."

Yet statistics show that Everest - although tallest - is only number 10 on the list of the 14, 8000ers in terms of fatalities. Annapurna (8,091 m), Nanga Parbat (8,125 m), K2 (8,611 m), Kangchenjunga (8,586 m), Manaslu (8,163 m), Dhaulagiri (8,167 m), Makalu (8,485 m), Gasherbrum I (8,080 m), Shisha Pangma (8,027 m) are all deadlier - some, like Annapurna (8,091 m), far deadlier with a summit fatality rate of 40%.

Only this past summer season, K2 (8,611m) and Nanga Parbat (8,125 m) killed 6 climbers on a mere 8 summits between the two peaks.

According to most veteran Himalaya climbers, the main difference on Everest is ignorance, selfish ambition, theft in camps, bad guides, and insufficient supplementary oxygen. Also, the secrecy surrounding Everest is unprecedented on other Himalayan peaks. Veteran climbers criticize not the number of deaths on Everest - but rather the general decay on the peak; which includes hustling of bad oxygen, commercial efforts to discourage independent climbing, indifference to peers in distress and cover ups of accidents.

Here is a record of the fatalities confirmed on Everest this past season:

May 25, Everest North ridge (Tibet): Becoming completely blind on ascent, at 8800 meters, only 50 meters below the summit, Thomas Weber, 41, was turned back at 9.15 am by guide Harry Kikstra and two Sherpas. 3 hours later, at 12:20 pm, Thomas had a collapse on the Second step (8700 m). He said, "I am dying" and lost consciousness. At 12:40 pm death was verified. Expedition leader Alexander Abramov provided a report the same day. The guide was later criticized for recklessness. Another of Abramov's clients was left for dead high up May 25 but found alive the next day by other climbers and rescued.

May 22, Everest North ridge (Tibet): Russian Snow Leopard Igor Plyushkin, 54, complained that he didn't feel well at 7800 meters. Guides administered supplementary oxygen and adrenaline shots in a struggle for his life that lasted 1,5 hours. Igor died at 1.45 pm local time due to AMS. Expedition leader Alexander Abramov released the details the same day.

May 20, Everest North ridge (Tibet): Around the weekend of May 20/21, French climber Jacques-Hugues Letrange died on descent from the summit. The French mountaineer had climbed Everest from its North side with his wife Caroline. She allegedly told a climber later that her husband had been abandoned while still alive, but no details were released.

May 18, Everest North ridge (Tibet): Brazilian climber Vitor Negrete perished on descent after a no 02 summit. Vitor climbed alone but managed to call his Sherpa who went up and helped him to camp 3, where Vitor later died of altitude. Only days before his death, Vitor dispatched that he was distressed about thefts in his team's high camps and team mate's David Sharp's death. Brazil media released the news of Vitor's death.

May 15, Everest North ridge (Tibet): Vitor's team mate British David Sharp, 34, perished on his summit bid. According to an interview with Washington Times, Double amputee Mark Inglis said that David Sharp, 34, was still alive at 28,000 feet, but was left to die at around 8000 meters by about 40 people who passed him that day. Both climbers were outfitted by Asian trekking, and climbing the north side. Asian Trekking did not provide information on the location, time or cause of David Sharp's death until May 23.

May 14-15, Everest North ridge (Tibet): Indian Army climber Constable Srikrishna fell down a steep slope while descending. Some climbers state he "jumped" off but the exact location and circumstances of the accident are unclear. A second group of Indian Army ITBP officials reached the summit on May 16, but the fatality was only mentioned in a local Indian news source.

May 16, Everest North Face (Tibet): Swedish Tomas Olsson, died on the difficult Everest North Face in an attempt to ski down the Norton couloir with team mate Tormod Granheim. Tomas' snow anchor broke loose at a rock outcrop section and he fell from 8500 meters. Tormod free climbed down after his mate but found only gear scattered around. Details were published within 24 hours and a search party was dispatched the next day. Tomas body was discovered by a Sherpa at 6700 meters Saturday. Both climbers were unguided, sharing permit with an international group organized by Arun Treks & Expeditions.

April 21, Everest South-East ridge (Nepal): Three Sherpas died in the Everest icefall, in a massive serac collapse: Ang Phinjo Sherpa was hired by IMG, Lhakpa Tseri and Dawa Temba were employed by Asian Trekking on an expedition listed as led by Douglas Tumminello & Apa Sherpa (Team No Limit) climbing the south side. Details were released by IMG the same morning.

April 4, Everest North ridge (Tibet): Tuk Bahadur Thapa Masar, 32, died from HAPE. He had assisted in fixing lines to the North Col at 23,000 ft. After his second ascend to the North Col, Tuk Bahadur felt ill and descended to BC where he died. Tuk Bahadur was from the Solo Khumbu region of Nepal and was on his first expedition with HIMEX guiding outfit. ExWeb received no official details about the accident until the end of the season.

May 5, Lhotse/Everest South side (Nepal): Czech climber Pavel Kalny was injured after a fall on the Lhotse wall (shared route with Everest south-east ridge). Pavel climbed with seasoned Czech climber Martin Minarik who following Pavel's injury continued down to camp 3 alone, allegedly in aggreement with Pavel who was to follow in his own, slower pace. Pavel was found the next day still alive by a team of Sherpas and a Chilean doctor who helped him down, but the climber died short of camp 3. Details from Martin were expected in May but have not arrived.






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According to most veteran Himalaya climbers, the main difference on Everest is ignorance, selfish ambition, theft in camps, bad commercial guides, and insufficient oxygen. To speed up the climb and cut expedition costs of logistics, some guides reportedly recommend their clients to use Dexamethasone (a catabolic steroid) as a climbing aid and to not clip in to the fixed ropes in the ice fall. There's also a secrecy surrounding Everest accidents and fatalities unprecedented on other Himala..