Everest: Weather Questions

About 100 climbers remain on Everest with only one goal in mind: to reach the summit. The only news they want from the outside world for the next few days are weather forecasts. Unfortunately, nothing is certain.

A number of teams, mainly with European and American outfitters, are on the move toward the summit. Nepali operators have decided to wait for a better window closer.

These different approaches could be based on disagreements between forecasts, Michael Fagin of WestCoastWeather told ExplorersWeb:

“Some forecast models (not the ones I focus on) show reasonable summit winds and little snowfall from May 18 to May 20. Perhaps these models are not factoring in the cyclone. With the cyclone in play, there is some uncertainly about winds and snowfall. Some models call for moderate snowfall and gusty summit winds at times between May 18 and May 20. These forecast differences might be why some teams are climbing now while others wait at Base Camp for a better window, hopefully toward the end of May.”

Seven Summit Treks believes that there will be no window until May 26, but that good weather should then continue through May 29. Cryptically, Nirmal Purja posted a chant extolling the virtues of patience.

The Madison Mountaineering climbers are at Camp 2 but they are not yet ready to proceed farther. They are reassessing the situation daily. Currently, they are considering whether to spend a second night there and enjoy the relative comfort of the flat, wind-sheltered area before heading out on their final summit push. SummitClimb and Alex Abramov’s team joined them at 6,400m.

Mountain Professionals set off from Base Camp yesterday. Several teams from Climbing the Seven Summits left Base Camp today and their “Western-guided team” will follow soon.