Events on Manaslu have combined to create a nearly perfect recipe for disaster. The weather window is shorter than expected, a cyclone is quickly approaching, hundreds of climbers are in a hurry to summit, and worst of all, dangerous conditions caused two more deaths yesterday.
Last Friday, the rope fixers reached the summit of Manaslu, prompting crowds of climbers and their guides to hurry toward the higher camps. The weather remained unstable over the weekend, but a summit window should stretch from today through Wednesday.
Many teams planned to wait at Camps 2 and 3 for a summit chance, but the weather on Saturday and Sunday was so stormy and snowy that most retreated to Base Camp. Unfortunately, two never made it back.
Slab avalanche
Indian-German climber Dhruba Jyoti Guha and his guide Phursemba Sherpa were found dead yesterday, after an avalanche engulfed their Camp 3 tent. The rest of their team, outfitted by Makalu Adventure, had remained in Camp 2, but Guha and Phursemba decided to push higher in hopes of an early summit chance.
Their expedition leader raised the alarm when the climbers failed to reply on the radio. A Sherpa rescue team later found the climbers buried under two meters of snow, the Everest Chronicle reported.
A drone flight over the area on Sunday evening showed a broken snow slab, which probably triggered the fatal avalanche:
Slab avalanche right above tents on Manaslu. Photo: The Everest Chronicle
Fading window, growing fears
The incident has increased fears among some climbers, while others still plan to take their chances with the brief summit window forecast to open today. Meanwhile, a cyclone is gaining strength in the Bay of Bengal is expected to hit Nepal’s mountains between Wednesday and Friday. Everyone must be down by the time it hits.
That leaves over 1,000 climbers, including foreigners and support staff, with only three options: to wait a long time until conditions are good, to call off their attempt and go home, or to launch a fast summit push, ignoring lack of rest, uncertain conditions, and crowds on the ropes.
The experts’ words
Simone Moro knows the mountain well: It’s his seventh time on Manaslu. From his experience, conditions now are plainly dangerous. He was at Camp 3 on Saturday, ready to summit, but with a forecast of more snow, he prudently returned to Base Camp.
“All we 400 hundred people currently in Base Camp have a wonderful opportunity to show that safety is the most important, or to show the world that we don’t care about the danger, and we try to make a Russian roulette climb,” Moro posted. He suggests that would-be summiters may need to wait weeks, not days.
Simone Moro at Manaslu Base Camp yesterday. Photo: 14 Peaks Expeditions
Interestingly, Reinhold Messner turned to social media in support of the Italian. “No amount of money — and no summit — is worth risking a life: not for a guide, and not for a climber who has paid or booked for the ascent,” he writes. “Life is worth more, so are the lives of those waiting at home. Simone is absolutely right: better to stay down once than to risk everything.”
Guide Mingma G has also called for caution. “Nepal endured catastrophic floods shortly after losing several celebrated climbers on Broad Peak,” the Imagine Nepal leader wrote. “Now, numerous climbers are attempting Manaslu, Dhaulagiri, and various other mountains. I hope everyone checks the weather forecast…and I also hope our government ensures that all emergency arrangements are in place — not only in the mountains but across the entire country.”
Mingma G led the recovery operations on Broad Peak to recover the bodies of 10 climbers killed in the massive avalanche on July 30, many of them close friends.
As of today, here is how the various teams are trending:
Plan A: Wait
Among those prepared to wait is the Russian team led by Arten Tsentevitski. He will later attempt Makalu in alpine style. The team was ready to attempt the summit, but hazardous snow conditions led them to choose a patient approach.
Elite Exped reported yesterday that their team is just back from their acclimatization rotation and will also rest and wait.
B) Pack and go home
Others have called their expedition off altogether, including American guide Luke Smithwick and his skiing team. “After living through cyclones in 2025, 2021, 2019, and 2014 in Nepal, I know [they are] serious and not something to be taken lightly,” Smithwick said.
A Manaslu skier returns to Base Camp today. Photo: Luke Smithwick
Smithwick noted that some large expeditions with 15-50 participants (!) are taking their teams “up to Camp 2 and 3 for sightseeing and fixed-rope travel on oxygen; we hope they stay safe,” he remarked.
C) Move up
According to the Everest Chronicle, several teams began moving up from Base Camp again yesterday. Summit Force reported that at least two of their senior guides are in Camp 3.
One of the biggest outfitters, 14 Peaks Expeditions, writes that their teams are heading up, hoping to summit during the upcoming window, although they will assess the situation camp by camp.
Among their clients are Justin Sackett and Ryan Mitchel of the U.S., who are on Manaslu after their no-oxygen attempt on Everest last spring. They retreated to Base Camp yesterday, shocked by the news of the two avalanche deaths, but today they returned to Camp 1.
“If conditions are perfect, Camp 3 tomorrow and perhaps climb higher,” Sackett reported today. “We will turn around if we find unstable conditions — not worth dying for.”
Seven Summit Treks’ leader Chhang Dawa Sherpa says they’ll also move up and decide as they go.
Lakpa Sherpa, leader of the huge 8K Expeditions team, recently updated their plans: “Our expedition continues as planned, our 8K team members and guides are currently positioned at Base Camp and Camps 1, 2, and 3,” he wrote.
Sept. 23-24 summits?
He noted that conditions cannot be evaluated from Base Camp, and their guides will assess the situation on the go. “If conditions remain safe and everything progresses as expected, we are preparing for our planned summit push on 23–24 September,” he confirmed.
Photos shared by climbers in Base Camp showed the skies clearing yesterday, but more recent shots indicate it was snowing again this afternoon. Even with light or no snow, conditions on Manaslu require caution, especially on the avalanche-prone slopes between C3 and C4, and the final summit ramps.
Dawn on Sunday on Manaslu. Photo: Dawa Temba Sherpa
“The 7 Summits Club’s Manaslu-26 team has decided to set off for the summit today,” leader Alexander Abramov of Russia said. The 17 Sherpas and 17 clients set off for Camp 1 yesterday and planned to reach Camp 2 today.
“From there, we’ll move — using oxygen — to Camp 4, with the summit attempt scheduled for September 23,” Abramov announced. He explained that waiting for better conditions would take too much time.
Risk assessment
Avalanche risk assessment requires specific skills and experience, especially on a mountain as avalanche-prone as Manaslu. Highly skilled climbers have perished here, including Hillaree Nelson, who triggered a small avalanche while skiing down from the summit and fell to her death in 2022. Summit fever may outweigh good judgment as the climbers progress, especially if the skies are clear. It could be hard for local guides to turn them around, a delicate balance that has often led to dramatic situations on the higher mountains.
