Over a hundred climbers have been biting their nails in K2’s Base Camp for weeks, wondering whether to continue to wait or to go home. Many started to think that the season would end without summits. But the patient ones have begun to see a little progress — and the promise of a weekend summit window.
Benjamin Vedrines recently battled fierce winds and cold to complete his acclimatization. He is just back from his third solo visit to Camp 3. His photographer, Seb Montaz, waited in Camp 2. Vedrines has managed to keep his motivation after one month and 10 days of waiting.
He knows that his limited preparations might not be enough for his original plan of climbing K2 in a one-day push. But he is ready to adapt and try to summit in two days, if necessary.
Hiraide and Kenro Nakajima have likewise waited patiently for weeks. Finally, this morning, they are on the go.
“It was raining at 4:30 am, but we are leaving anyway for Advanced Base Camp, hoping for a last chance,” they texted their home team. The Japanese alpinists will try to open a new route, alpine style, on the West Face of K2.
Commercial climbers have also latched onto summit hopes. Chhang Dawa Sherpa of Seven Summit Treks announced yesterday that sherpas and western climbers had joined forces and managed to fix the ropes to Camp 3 at 7,350m.
“All necessary equipment for our team has been deposited,” Chhang Dawa Sherpa wrote. “With improving weather expected in the next four to five days, the summit push will begin.”
But will the weather really improve?
Forecast
Several climbers have complained that so far this season, forecasts throughout the Karakoram have failed dismally. Unexpected bad weather thwarted summit attempts on Gasherbrum II and Broad Peak and delayed progress elsewhere in the Karakoram.
We checked with American meteorologist Marc de Keyser of Weather4Expeditions. He is working with teams on K2, Broad Peak, and K7. He told ExplorersWeb that contrary to some forecasts, his have been quite accurate so far. But de Keyser agrees that 2024 has been a challenge.
“The subtropical jet stream has been meandering just north of Pakistan but close enough to maintain high winds at 7,500m+ for almost the last two weeks without any break,” De Keyser explained.
He explained that teams must stay patient and wait for the high-pressure belt over the Arabian Sea and central India to expand northward, pushing the jet stream with the poor weather north into China and Kazakhstan.
And his is exactly what is going to happen within a few days. On July 26, the wind at the higher levels should decrease significantly, and the air mass [will] become drier and more stable. A nice weather window will then open for K2 and neighboring peaks. From July 26 till July 28-29, the weather should be favorable to summit.
A summit push has also begun on Broad Peak. Karakorum Expeditions promised that eight Pakistani rope fixers would set off from Base Camp today to open the route to the summit.
