At the end of January, scientists gave Asteroid 2024 YR4 a 1 in 83 chance of colliding with Earth in 2032. Those odds have now almost doubled to a 1 in 43 chance.
To learn more, the James Webb Space Telescope has been tasked to observe the space rock before it disappears from view for several years.
The chances of the asteroid colliding with Earth are still incredibly low — just 2.3%. However, that still marks the biggest asteroid threat in over two decades. Based on ground telescope data, scientists estimate its size at 55 meters in diameter. That’s big enough to take out a city. However, it is possible that the asteroid is much larger.
“In general, the brighter the asteroid, the larger it is, but this strongly depends on how reflective the asteroid’s surface is. 2024 YR4 could be 40m across and very reflective, or 90m across and not very reflective,” European Space Agency (ESA) officials pointed out recently.
To better estimate its size, which is the key metric of how much damage a collision might cause, the JWST will analyze the heat coming from the asteroid using infrared technology. Researchers will also study its route and surface composition.
Even with the JWST, astronomers can view the asteroid only at two points in its trajectory — in March and May. After that, it slips out of view until 2028.
However, that is not the only limiting factor. The team can use the space telescope for just four hours in total. The telescope is in high demand, and every minute on it is stringently scheduled and budgeted for, even for important uses like this one.
